[TP1]

Here’s a thread that screams “man who should get out more ”.  

There’s a little bit of a debate over whether Saturday’s attendance was disappointing or not, especially when the weather is factored in.  I’m inclined to think it was ok. Here’s some context, and (very) basic  stats-based outlines of both arguments.

First the context. Of the teams who played at home in NLN on Saturday and were NLN teams last year, only Chorley pulled in a crowd that was above their average (mean) for last season. Well done Chorley fans!  Kidderminster, Chester and Spenneymoor were all pretty close to their average (mean) for last season. Southport, Farsley, Kettering and Gloucester were the teams with noticeably below average gates. Overall, I’d suggest the lack of above-average gates for first home game of the season shows that weather and timing definitely shrank crowds.

But was our home crowd on Saturday disappointing? Well, if you dig further into the comparisons with the previous season’s average (mean) attendances, the answer looks like it’s “yes”.  Southport were 14% below average, Farsley were 19% down, and Kettering 31%. Our attendance was 33% down. Looks grim, right? We’re feckless bad’uns who don’t deserve a football team.

But I think we get a more realistic, and more positive, answer if we use our median gate from last season as our average gate instead of the mean attendance.  Of course, as Gloucester fans are the most intelligent in the NLN, you all saw where I was going with this.  We had a crazy range of home attendances (from about 670 to 2800) last season affected by a variety of factors which I’d argue makes our mean attendance a pretty misleading indicator of the core support we should reasonably expect to be in the Tiger Turf week in, week out.  The median (our mid-ranking attendance from last season) is actually a far better average to use for this purpose. I think our median was about 925 last season, as opposed to our mean of about 1200.

So what happens when we use the median? We were about 14% down. So potentially much more in line with our counterparts. We’re not such a bunch of rotters after all! 

I’ll leave it there for now. If anyone knows of a good web resource for non-league stats for past seasons, do let me know.

[Darran]

I bet plenty decided they didn't want to stand/sit in the heat on Saturday. It would have put me off going. People are still on holiday and it wouldn't be a surprise if people were more choosey when it comes to which games they come to this season given costs elsewhere. Pre floods we would have been happy to get 798 going to a game.

[Neil]

It's Gloucester people all over isn't it. All the effort put in by the club and constantly let down by them.

[Andrew B]

I can only speak for myself. I have a certain health condition, which I won't go into. The heat DID put me off going Saturday. I'll be there Tuesday night v Peterborough Sports. 
 I have a Season Ticket anyway, so the Club still gets my support, wether I am there or not.

[drbob]

The heat DID put me off going Saturday. I'll be there Tuesday night v Peterborough Sports. 
 I have a Season Ticket anyway, so the Club still gets my support, wether I am there or not.

Ditto - see you tomorrow evening

[Kitto]

It's Gloucester people all over isn't it. All the effort put in by the club and constantly let down by them.

 There's no obligation on people in Gloucester to support us, we've got to earn their support, both off the pitch and on the pitch.

[drbob]

 There's no obligation on people in Gloucester to support us, we've got to earn their support, both off the pitch and on the pitch.

It's going to be mainly what happens on the pitch that affects attendance - people love winners!

[Darran]

It's going to be mainly what happens on the pitch that affects attendance - people love winners!

I think we were very lucky to get the numbers we got last season given how crap we were for most of it.

[Kitto]

It's going to be mainly what happens on the pitch that affects attendance - people love winners!

Results on the pitch determine whether casual fans & first timers will be there, but there's work you can do off the pitch to convert these into regulars.

[Stable Lad]

What was it 34°if not more, hardly any shade in a ground made predominantly of metal and an Amber heat warning. Not too sure it's fair to draw any reasonable conclusions against that background tbh.